Numerical weather prediction

What is Numerical weather prediction?

Numerical weather prediction is the process of using mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions and physical laws governing atmospheric motion.

Numerical weather prediction models operate by dividing the Earth's atmosphere into a three-dimensional grid. Current weather observations—such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and pressure—are then fed into these grids. 

Through a process called data assimilation, these observations are combined with the model's previous forecast to establish the initial conditions. The models then apply equations based on physics and fluid dynamics to calculate how atmospheric conditions will change over time at each point within the grid.

These complex calculations are performed on powerful supercomputers. NWP models vary in scale, from global models—the Global Forecast System or the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—that cover the entire planet, to regional models—the Weather Research and Forecasting Model—that focus on specific areas. 

These models are essential tools for meteorologists and researchers, aiding in improved weather forecasting accuracy for applications like aviation, disaster preparedness, and climate studies.

Published:

April 9, 2025

Alternate names:

NWP